Did Putin make a Strategic Blunder un Ukraine?

Fear and loss have gripped eastern Europe following Russia's invasion of Ukraine on the 24th February. Thousands of Refugees have fled towards the western borders of Poland and Romania. Behind them, they leave cities such as Kyiv or Kharkiv, which with the sinister sound of air raid sirens and bombings, day-by-day seem to be nearing the fate of the war-torn cities of Aleppo, Sarajevo and Dresden. Civilians now take refuge in the metro whilst the country’s military (aided by many new volunteers) patrol the streets and defend the outskirts of cities from Russian offensives. Although the Ukrainian military is small compared to Russia's, it has managed to counter Putin’s offensives thus far.

Most analysts believed the Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a rapid one, similar to Adolf Hitler's invasion of Poland in 1939 which precipitated the 2nd World War. Rather ironically, to justify the “Blitzkrieg” inspired offensive, Putin claimed on Thursday that his military was engaging in a peacekeeping mission to end the alleged genocide of native Russians and “de-Nazify” Ukraine's government, despite it being led by a Jewish President whose grandfather survived the Holocaust.

There has been no evidence that Ukraine was “Nazified” in the first place nor that Putin’s goals are to combat fascism. While some fascist groups, such as the Azov Battalion have joined the fight against Russian encroachment, Putin’s claims are blown well out of proportion. The allegation of genocide against native Russians is also false. The reason Russian-backed separatist militants were dying in eastern Ukraine is because they had been engaged in a war since the 2014 Maidan revolution. This conflict was marked by both sides accusing the other of genocide with limited evidence. Putin knows very well of Zelensky’s Jewish heritage and the facts on Russian separatist groups in Ukraine.

In fact, all this really shows is Putin's paranoia concerning NATO expansionism and the west’s close ties with democratic Ukraine. He feels threatened by the West's growing proximity to Russia, and personally wants Ukraine to remain under Russian influence. However, Putin’s actions have only pushed Ukraine further towards NATO. He has also turned the Ukrainian people against Russia; a clear example of this is his annexation of Crimea which now seems to be a strategic blunder as it prevented Crimean inhabitants from having a say in Ukrainian elections and potentially electing a pro-Russia President. Furthermore, it made Ukrainians significantly more skeptical of Putin and interested in joining NATO and the EU.

This kind of strategic miscalculation is clearly mirrored in his current invasion of Ukraine. Putin thought he would be the saviour of the Ukrainian people but, as the Russian tanks rolled through Ukraine, they found themselves far from welcome. They had no idea they would be like the oppressors of Prague 1968 or Tiananmen Square 1989. Not only that, but instead of being steamrolled by Russia, the Ukrainians have unexpectedly risen up and managed to defend their country so far.

This is largely thanks to Zelensky, who is currently winning not only the military battle over Russia but also global, public opinion. He took the hearts of the world when he courageously declined to leave the country and stay to govern the people. Whilst the Russian leader is sheltered in the Kremlin, Zelensky can be seen on the streets of Kyiv all over the media, bravely defending his country alongside his countrymen. However, some have also criticised him. Zelensky is urging allies to take more actions, using the humanitarian crisis as an excuse to invoke guilt in western observers. Since Putin appears to be exploiting the fear of nuclear war to deter western involvement, it raises the question of whether Zelensky is demanding too much.

That said, Europe’s unity in the face of Russian aggression was a welcome surprise. Although the initial sanctions were criticised for being too weak, both the EU and the US have now crippled Russia's economy, the with the Russian ruble having crashed by more than 40%. The EU also announced they would supply weapons to Ukraine. Even Germany, a country that since World War 2 abstained from providing other countries with military aid, has now offered additional supplies to the Ukrainians. After the EU has let itself be tormented by Putin for the past two decades in anticipation of a conflict, it is now choosing to put its foot down with an act of unity, strength and authority in defence of the liberal and democratic values it represents.

Russia expected to find itself in the heart of Kyiv within days. This has instead forced them to restructure its invasion into a war, something which they surely never intended. The question now remains what the future holds. After Putin put his nuclear deterrent forces on high alert, he sent a shiver down the world's spine; is he threatening nuclear war? While many view Putin as a raging, irrational maniac, he knows that such an escalation wouldn't do anyone good, least of all him. These are likely threats to deter the west from undermining his ultimate goal in Ukraine: to restore a government similar to Byelorussia's Lukashenko regime, which largely serves as a puppet government to Russia. With the hope that no major escalation causes a conflict between NATO and Russia, if Ukraine manages to hold strong, a dramatically costly war will eventually force one of the two sides to declare a ceasefire; likely ending in the retreat of Russian troops or the separation of Ukraine into a Russian controlled and Independent Ukrainian Regions.

Even more interestingly, Russian oligarchs, fearing that western governments will seize their wealth, may be tired of Putin's geopolitical experiments and turn against him, leading to political instability in Moscow. Many Russians are clearly very unhappy with this invasion as large protests having populated the streets of Russian cities this past weekend despite government suppression of discontent. And, Putin has evidently bottled his main intention, having strengthened, and reactivated the ‘brain-dead’ NATO, as French president Emmanuel Macron called it a few years back. Could he have built a prison, only to find himself trapped on the inside? When asked on his many escaped assassination attempts, Putin once said: "Those who are destined to be hanged, are not going to drown." He has been in power for quite some time now. When will his day come?

Published in ROAR News March 3rd, 2022

https://roarnews.co.uk/2022/did-russia-make-a-strategic-blunder-in-ukraine/