AI: The Future of Problem-Solving in Kenya.

The question predates the concept in the history of human innovation: How to fix a problem? Around 4000BC, the invention of the wheel alleviated the labour of Sumerian farmers, allowing easier transportation of goods and greatly advancing agriculture in ancient Mesopotamia. To combat an increasingly inegalitarian oligarchy, the ancient Greeks invented democracy. And in the interwar period, Sir Alexander Fleming discovered that a mould he termed penicillin had antibacterial properties, drastically reducing the death rate of bacterial pneumonia from 20% in the first world war, to 1% in the second.

In East Africa, agriculture, politics, and healthcare all face challenges that are at the forefront of problem-solving solutions. Much of the farming done in this region of the world is still constrained by a lack of appropriate technology and burdensome manual labour. The political atmosphere is currently harmonising across the continent to the tune of economic stagnation, driven by authoritarianism and corruption. As for healthcare, access to effective diagnostics and treatment is still scarce in many isolated regions. For such problems, innovation in electronics can provide promising solutions.

It is in a relatively small lab in Nairobi’s industrial district that I found a handful of engineers pioneering Kenya’s booming IT tech sector. A few work desks crowded with laptops, cables, and other equipment, at which specialist workers design the circuits and programme the machines behind them which manufacture Printed Circuit Boards (PCB’s), the modern computer chip found in almost any tech device.

‘We help start-ups who are trying to solve a problem’, says Latiff Cherono, the manager of Gearbox Europlacer, the manufacturing subcompany of the Kenyan innovation and engineering ecosystem called Gearbox. As a PCB manufacturer, it is the first of its kind in East Africa. Founded in 2014 by Dr. Kamau Gashigi, Gearbox aims to give local entrepreneurs and organizations access to innovative tech solutions in Kenya to boost the digital transformation of the Kenyan economy. This will help the country overcome some of the challenges it faces, both in facilitating day to day life and business operations, but also in stimulating a more effective and corruption free business environment.

Using a surface mount technology production line (SMT), Gearbox Europlacer’s machines are able to operate on a high mix, low volume manufacturing line. This means they can print a diverse range of electronic circuit boards and cater to a variety of different technological needs. Some of the most prescient technologies driving innovation in the current fourth industrial revolution are Internet of Things (IOT) technologies, which facilitate the communication between devices and networks, and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Gearbox can engineer PCBs for both.

For African entrepreneurs, this makes life easier. Problem-solving Gearbox provides include agriculture solutions which help to optimise the management and irrigation of crops, or the feeding of livestock. Gearbox also contributes to the wave of African Fintech innovations, that first emerged in Kenya through pay as you go technologies such as M-Pesa, the mobile banking service through which money can be sent via mobile phones. Launched by Kenyan telecommunications company Safaricom in 2007 and a global pioneer in mobile payment, it is today used in seven African countries, and reported 23 billion transactions in 2023 up from 12.2 billion in 2020, making inadequate access to banking services a problem of the past, and contributing to 2% of Kenya’s GDP since 2007, according to the World Bank.

M-Pesa is among the most successful examples of technological innovation solving a problem in Africa. To find a way across the lack of infrastructure in many sectors of the economy, innovators like M-Pesa use technology to cut corners, an approach to problem solving also known as leapfrogging. Many countries in Africa lack the infrastructure to provide on-grid energy and running water, or in some cases appropriate voting systems and even medical diagnostics. Using technological innovations, such as solar energy and recyclable plastic water tanks, electronic voting systems or blood sample diagnostics across the internet, start-ups are able to shortcut the infrastructures needed tomorrow and address the problems facing Africans today.

This greatly benefits the Kenyan economy which for the last 30 years has largely operated in the informal setting. Referred to as jua kali, this sector of the economy arises out of an extremely low absorption capacity in Kenya’s formal economy. Consequently, roughly 83% of workers in Kenya are employed by informal micro enterprises. They are non-registered, non-licensed, non-tax paying companies, displaying low innovation and growth rates, and financed through savings, loans, or chamas, an organisational practice where money is shared among a collection of locals, popular in East Africa.

Informal sector businesses in Nairobi.

While the informal sector provides short term solutions for many Kenyans, it holds back the country’s transition to a productive and growth-oriented economy, by remaining consumptive. This drives up inflation and encourages economic stagnation, one of the principal issues in Kenya and many other African nations. Tech companies and technological innovations however, helped by Artificial Intelligence, can optimise economic activity and drive inflation down, lower costs and boost productivity. In a time where most sectors of the economy are dependent on Machine learning, AI and Information Communication Technologies (ICT’s), access to tech engineering and manufacturing is a vital element of modernisation.

Gearbox hopes to spearhead this development. Currently, importing PCBs from hubs like India and China comes with high import costs, shipping errors, and risks of IP theft. Manufacturing domestically is by comparison not just more convenient for companies, but also drives value addition in Kenya, and helps the country transition from a consumer economy to one which is growth oriented.

Kenya’s geopolitical position in the global electronics market will also benefit from this. A study conducted by Global Market Insights (GMI) estimates that the global PCB market will grow from USD 75 billion in 2021 to 120 billion by 2030, boasting compound annual growth of 5%. Although the electronics supply chain has for a long time functioned on offshored manufacturing in Asian economies, the dawn of AI allows cheaper manufacturing to return to a domestic scale.

Today, much of Africa is excluded from this geopolitical dynamic. Yet, in the context of the trade war between China and the US, growing African economies become vital spheres of influence where tomorrow, allies in an increasingly competitive electronics market can operate. In an act of what is also called ‘friend-shoring’, the United States has already targeted Kenya as a future trade partner. On May 23rd, in a celebration of cooperation and partnership, Kenya’s president William Ruto was invited to visit the White House in Washington, DC, and hold discussions along with a selection of Kenyan delegates. Dr. Kamau Gashigi, the founder of Gearbox, was among the delegates invited by the United States government.

Kenya’s move towards the US and away from China is of geopolitical significance, since, in a region of the world which is looking to align itself with the BRIC alliance, it is among the few African nations to show western geopolitical interests. In the future, Kenya’s innovation and start up culture, also known as ‘silicon savannah’, may become a vital ally in the west’s geopolitical and green ambitions in the continent. Kenya’s democratic politics would also work in the favour of these goals, if only it were truly democratic.

Military suppress and arrest protestors in Nairobi's Central Banking District.

Walking back from my visit to Gearbox on Tuesday 18th June, I came across excited youths and elders on Nairobi’s streets. It was the first day in a series of protests which later turned violent, contesting the tax bill Ruto’s government was trying to introduce to alleviate the country’s heavy debt burden. Within moments, I found myself among a crowd of shouting and whistling activists, which just as quickly dispersed as tear gas bombs fell among us. Joking with some older demonstrators nearby, they reveal to me that Ruto’s taxes will actually be used for the expenses of Kenya’s public sector employees which, on average, are much wealthier than most private sector workers in the country.

Kenyans protesting William Ruto's taxes in June 2024.

Our conversation is cut short by teargas, but cartoonist and political satirist Godfrey Mwampembwa, also known by his pseudonym Gado, confirms the tale. ‘I went to sleep a happy man’ he says the next day, as he explains how the protests indicate an active Kenyan civil society driven by the youth’s exasperation of financial difficulties and unemployment. Ruto, who plays the role of Africa’s democratic politician, promised in 2021 to create 4 million jobs if elected, and an environment where employment flourishes. ‘The government has failed to do that’, Gado claims, blaming what he calls the elephant in the room: corruption. Kenya’s government gives illusions of democracy and equality, boasting a multiparty political system and cosying up to the US. Yet, when I ask most Kenyans, they greet this naivety with a smile, recounting stories of ineffective governance, difficult administration, and crippling corruption.

This is indeed where the challenges facing Gearbox currently lie. Among the taxes proposed by Ruto’s government were new non-resident taxes, which make Kenya a less attractive prospect for potential foreign clients and investors. While good trade relations with the west are beneficial to Gearbox Europlacer’s international clientele, which currently makes up 70% of revenues, this is arguably useless if the policy environment in Kenya on foreign investment and exporting is still burdened by heavy administrative requirements and tariffs.

Investing and supporting the development of a tech industry in Kenya opens opportunities for the future. Take for instance the world’s demand for copper, which due to the electrification of many industries, could reach 36.6 million metric tons by 2031, surpassing the projected supply of 30.1 million metric tons and creating a 20% shortfall. According to a study done by McKinsey, a consulting firm, this supply gap can be bridged using machine learning and AI tools to facilitate the mining processes of grind-circuit roughing and coarse particle scavenging. Electronics innovation through AI can therefore boost the supply of copper and help sustain the demand for electronics. This is beneficial to the electronics market, especially when it is nearby. As a country in Africa, a continent which holds a large portion of the global copper reserves, Kenya is well positioned to take advantage of such an opportunity.

This is just one of the many examples which show how electronics manufacturing and innovation boosts economic activity. As Latiff tells me: ‘What we’re seeing now with technological innovation is a whole new way of people to solve problems.’ In using AI and IoT's to come up with solutions to some of Kenya’s problems today, tomorrow, entrepreneurs across the continent can overcome the many hurdles which growing economies of Africa face.

The future of the Africa is bright in the eyes of many. The future of Africa is also in its youth. It is a continent which today has a median age of 19 and which tomorrow will hold a third of the world’s population (estimated population by 2050). ‘Young people are more likely to use technology as leverage to create something’, says Latiff. The protests in Kenya showed that the continents future is dictated by a blazing, fiery youth. Its embers are technology.